Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract. Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, past future changes to both have important impacts on global regional climate. Here, we evaluate long-term in these species from pre-industrial period (1850) end 21st century Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models under a range emissions scenarios. There is good agreement between CMIP multi-model mean observations for total column (TCO), although there substantial variation individual CMIP6 models. For mean, TCO has increased ∼ 300 DU 1850 305 1960, before rapidly declining 1970s 1980s following use emission halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). projected return 1960s values by middle SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, SSP5-8.5 scenarios, SSP3-7.0 scenarios be 10 higher than 2100. However, SSP1-1.9 SSP1-1.6 not despite reductions ODSs due decreases tropospheric mixing ratios. This pattern similar patterns, except tropics where most values, either through SSP1-2.6, or lower stratospheric resulting an acceleration Brewer–Dobson circulation other Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). In contrast TCO, poorer observed ratios, with underestimating ratios 0.5 ppmv at 70 hPa. tropical stratosphere present-day increase further century. The largest increases (∼ 2 ppmv) simulated highest assumed forcing pathway (e.g. SSP5-8.5). Tropical vapour, lesser extent shows large variations explosive volcanic eruptions.
منابع مشابه
Water vapour and ozone profiles
Water vapour and ozone profiles in the midlatitude upper troposphere G. Vaughan, C. Cambridge, L. Dean, and A. W. Phillips Institute of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Wales, Aberystwyth, UK Received: 16 September 2004 – Accepted: 8 October 2004 – Published: 15 December 2004 Correspondence to: G. Vaughan ([email protected]) © 2004 Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative...
متن کاملEstimating changes in global vegetation cover (1850–2100) for use in climate models
[1] Historical changes in global cropland area based on estimates of Ramankutty and Foley (1999), and projections of future changes under IPCC SRES development scenarios taken from the IMAGE 2 model, were combined with a simple classification of present-day satellite data. These data were used to estimate annual changes in area fractions occupied by primary plant functional types (PFTs) between...
متن کاملWater vapour and ozone profiles in the midlatitude upper troposphere
We present an investigation of upper tropospheric humidity profiles measured with a standard radiosonde, the Vaisala RS80-A, and a commercial frost-point hygrometer, the Snow White. Modifications to the Snow White, to enable the mirror reflectivity and Peltier cooling current to be monitored during flight, were found to be necessary to determine when the instrument was functioning correctly; a ...
متن کاملAttribution of observed changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature
Three recently-completed sets of simulations of multiple chemistry-climate models with greenhouse gases only, with all anthropogenic forcings, and with anthropogenic and natural forcings, allow the causes of observed stratospheric changes to be quantitatively assessed using detection and attribution techniques. The total column ozone response to halogenated ozone depleting substances and to nat...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['1680-7316', '1680-7324']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021